The situation in Egypt seems to be hotting up. President Hosni Mubarak has refused to step down despite massive protests and rumors that he would step down. As I type this, it is around 11am in Cairo (capital of Egypt). Protesters have promised to make this the biggest day of protests yet.
Things do not look good for the president. While he has been cleaver so far with his political moves, it looks like his luck has run out. I do not have a political view one way or another regarding the situation in Egypt. However I am giving my view based on how I view the political plays used by both the president and the protesters.
As I blogged about earlier, Mubarak has played this game very well. For him to win the game, all he has to do is wait until the protests die down. It does not matter what he promises in the mean time (since he will be able to break all those promises at a later date) just that he survives the unrest.
Once the unrest dies down, he will be able to jail the main instigators of the protest as well as mobilize the army to crush any further protests. He also knows that momentum for protests is a very scarce resource. Once that momentum has dissipated, it will never come back.
Mubarak claimed that he would not contest the Egyptian elections in September of this year. This was his first attempt at appeasing the protesters. It certainly did work in the short term, however people came to the streets to protest again. He then claimed that he could not resign because it would be bad for the country if he resigned before the September elections (he claimed it would lead the country into chaos).
Mubarak’s final attempt was to give all his power to his vice president and stay on as president, acting as a figure head. This was not accepted by the protesters, which is why Friday (today) is set to be huge.
Currently, we do not know where Mubarak is. I cannot blame him for hiding really. However the country must learn from Tunisia’s lesson. Tunisia had a large portion of their gold reserves stolen from them by the wife of former president Zine El Abidine Ben Ali.
Having cash stolen is a pain in the arse, but will not lead to long term economic damage. Having gold stolen from them is devastating. If protesters are to be successful, they must protect their countries gold reserves (as gold is real money as opposed to the fiat money that is in the form of cash, $US etc).
More light will be shed on this situation tomorrow. While insignificant in the history of the world, it is certainly significant as an event of 2011.
Regards
-Simon