Yesterday in part 1 it was demonstrated why a new technology can become obsolete the second it has been invented. Here in part 2 we will be elaborating on this theme some more.

Back in the 1990′s I would see footage of robots as personal servants. Most of this footage would be from the 1980′s.

Even at my young age back then, I had the capacity to understand that technology was ever improving. A technology that seemed clunky now could potentially undergo a fast improvement to the point where it provided great benefit.

Which got me asking myself why we didn’t all have robots cleaning our houses and serving us.

Why didn’t we?

Surely those concept robots of the 80′s should have improved to the point where everyone could afford and want one of these robots. What I didn’t grasp back then was the fact that these robots may not (and did not) provide society with it’s most efficient allocation of resources.

Simply put, it wasn’t worth producing them.

A pity.

2005… yeah right.

What about this?

Would love a flying car… but I don’t think we’ll be getting them by 2015.

Why bring this up? I was inspired by a post on a friends blog post (twiaap… for crazy tech). He showed a video of some interesting technology. “6th Sense” by Pranav Mistry. (Video Below).

I then left a rather lengthy comment below again making reference to videos of similar technology developed much earlier than “6th sense”.

Examples:

Loving the hair from 1991.

Also,

and finally…

Some examples of technology used in 6th sense. None of which have made it to market (in a ubiquitous sense). 2 of the videos are 18 years before the “6th sense” talk and one 8 years before.

Why wasn’t any of this used in our day to day lives?

My guess is that people didn’t want a calculator projected onto their desk. Instead they wanted to pick up a normal calculator to add or subtract etc etc. This stuff must have been seen as not being worth it.

Does that mean Pranav’s technology is destined to fail? Not necessarily. He must however make it of value to the general public if it isn’t to go the way of the other technologies shown above.

Is this possible?

Glad you asked.

To answer that question we need only look at technologies which have become part of our every day lives. A classic example is the mobile phone (or cell phone).

From expensive, clunky and often useless in the early 80′s, we now have very cheap and technologically advanced mobile phones today. From $3000 back in the early 80′s (in 1980′s dollars) to the price they are today (I can buy a basic pre-paid phone for $20 if I wanted).

This is no accident. The process of technological development, the cheaper prices over time and the fact that many people have mobile phones can be put down to them being economically viable.

Phone contracts or pre-paid packages provide cash flow for telephone companies. Te profit motive then forces them to improve reception (or risk having customers jump ship to another provider). Since people want good phones, phone makers are forced (again through the profit motive) to create better and better phones.

Without that cash flow, mobile phones would not have gone beyond the ‘bricks’ you saw back in the early 80′s. The profits available to phone makers and service providers were society’s way of saying ‘we want more of this, please give it to us’.

Let us finally look at a more pertinent example.

The iPad.

The world’s most useless device in my mind. But ipads have been profitable enough for Apple that a large number of copy-cat products have entered the market. Is the tablet computer a new concept?

Not at all… here are 2 examples from apple alone.

Not bad, here’s another one.

So the technology for the tablet computer was already around (at least in concept form) 20 years ago. I am sure than had it been economically viable 20 years ago they would have found a way to produce it.

This is more relevant to our discussion on “6th sense” as it shows a technology that was placed on the back burner for a long time and the resurrected as it became profitable to produce. Society told businesses that they wanted more of this product and were willing to provide profits to the business that produced it.

6th Sense could change our lives. However it requires either the technology to change or society’s preferences to change in order for business to be able to make money out of it. Otherwise it will just be another one of those technologies that look cool but never venture beyond trade shows or science magazines.

Good luck to Pranav Mistry.

Regards

-Simon